Assessing the Resilience of the Tourism Sector in the Kurdistan Region : An Analytical Study of the Repercussions of Health, Political, and Economic Crises during the Period 2007-2023

Abstract

This research aims to "Assessing the Resilience of the Tourism Sector in the Kurdistan Region: An Analytical Study of the Repercussions of Health, Political, and Economic Crises during the Period 2007-2023."The study concluded that the tourism sector in the region possesses resilience and a capacity for recovery, despite the significant challenges it has faced. The causality analysis results showed that health crises (COVID-19), political crises (war against ISIS), and economic crises (deterioration of relations with Baghdad) were all major and direct factors in the decline of tourist numbers. It was found that oil prices positively affect tourism revenues indirectly, and that an increase in tourist numbers contributes to the growth of the workforce and investments. Boundary tests confirmed a long-term cointegration relationship between GDP and tourism and economic variables, indicating that these variables move towards equilibrium in the long run. The study recommended the necessity of developing comprehensive emergency plans, diversifying tourism markets, providing incentives for investors, leveraging periods of high oil prices to fund tourism projects, investing in vocational training and qualification programs, enhancing cooperation with the private sector, and intensifying media and promotional campaigns to correct the mental image of the region as a safe and attractive destination.